Your weekly market intelligence for smarter bidding, better margins, and fewer surprises.
At a Glance
Indicator | Current | Trend | Month/Month | Year/Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Copper (LME) | $12,987/mt | ▲ Rising Fast | +10.1% | +44.7% |
Regular Gas (Natl) | $2.776/gal | ▲ Rising | +2.9% | -7.6% |
Diesel (Natl) | $3.809/gal | ▲ Rising | +2.6% | — |
Diesel (Gulf Coast) | $2.570/gal | ▲ Rising | +3.7% | — |
WTI Crude | $66.36/bbl | ↘ Easing | -0.5% | — |
PPI: HVAC Equipment | 314.1 | ↗ Ticking Up | +0.4% | +5.5% |
PPI: Steel Products | 286.2 | ↗ Ticking Up | +0.8% | +10.3% |
PPI: Fab Structural Steel | 205.4 | ↗ Ticking Up | +0.2% | +13.6% |
Copper — The Line Set & Coil Benchmark
Current Price: $12,987/mt (≈ $5.89/lb)
Month-over-Month: +10.1% | Year-over-Year: +44.7%
What This Means for Your Business
Copper is up 44.7% year-over-year — that is not a typo. AI data center construction, EV charging infrastructure, and the energy transition are pulling from the same supply your coils and line sets need. If you're quoting jobs more than 10 days out, factor in a copper cushion.
Action Items:
Review open bids that are more than 7 days old — copper-driven increases on line sets and coils can hit with short notice from distributors
If you have large commercial jobs pending, consider locking material pricing with your supply house now
For residential quotes, consider shortening your price-hold window to 7-10 days (down from the old 30-day standard)
Fuel — Your Fleet's Biggest Recurring Cost
Fuel Type | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
Regular Gasoline (National) | $2.776/gal | YoY: -7.6% |
On-Highway Diesel (National) | $3.809/gal | MoM: +2.6% |
Diesel (Gulf Coast / SE Region) | $2.570/gal | Regional benchmark |
Fleet Cost Check
Gas is down 7.6% compared to this time last year. Good news for your bottom line — but don't drop your travel surcharges yet.
Fuel Surcharge Quick Math (based on a $3.00/gal baseline, 10 MPG service truck):
Current diesel: $3.809/gal
Surcharge per mile: $0.081
On a 50-mile round trip: $4.05 in fuel cost above baseline
Tip: If diesel stays above $3.50, make sure your service call pricing reflects it. Most homeowners understand fuel costs — just be transparent about it.
Equipment & Materials — PPI Tracker
The Producer Price Index tells you what manufacturers are paying, which previews what you'll pay next.
Index | Current | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|
HVAC Equipment (WPU1148) | 314.1 | +5.5% |
Steel Products | 286.2 | +10.3% |
Fabricated Structural Steel | 205.4 | +13.6% |
What the Numbers Say
Steel is running hot. With steel products up 10.3% and fabricated steel up 13.6% year-over-year, expect continued pressure on furnace shells, RTU cabinets, and ductwork pricing. These increases flow through to equipment pricing with a 60-90 day lag.
HVAC equipment PPI is up 5.5% year-over-year. This is the index that validates your flat-rate book price resets. If your flat-rate guide hasn't been updated in the last 6 months, you're likely leaving money on the table.
Refrigerant Watch
R-410A — Service Stock Status
R-410A is no longer used in newly manufactured residential and light commercial equipment (as of Jan 1, 2025), but it remains essential for servicing the existing installed base. As production quotas tighten under the AIM Act, wholesale pricing continues to climb.
Current Market Range:
Wholesale (25-lb jug): ~$349-$495+
Service price to homeowner: $40-$90 per pound (material + labor)
Market availability: Tightening — plan ahead for summer demand
R-454B & R-32 — The New Standard
R-454B (Carrier, Trane) and R-32 (mini-splits, budget lines) are the A2L replacements.
Key Pricing:
R-454B wholesale (20-lb): $345-$669 per jug (supply constraints persist)
R-32 wholesale (20-lb): $234-$295
Remember: A2L installs require leak detection sensors and dissipation systems, adding ~$200-$600 per job
The Repair-vs-Replace Math: With R-410A service costs climbing, a standard 3-ton unit needing a full 9-lb recharge could run $360-$810 in refrigerant alone. That conversation with the homeowner about replacement gets easier every month.
Manufacturer Price Alerts
Recent and upcoming price moves from major OEMs — use this to time your equipment purchases and close pending deals before increases hit.
Check ACHR News Price Increase List for the latest updates.
Key Alerts This Period:
Lennox: Up to 10% on residential equipment and accessories (effective Feb 16, 2026); up to 5% on commercial (effective Jan 1, 2026)
Carrier: Blended average of 6% residential / 8% light commercial (announced 2025, continuing into 2026)
Empire Comfort Systems: 4-8% increase (effective March 1, 2026)
Industry-wide: Most Q1 2026 adjustments landing in the low- to mid-single-digit range, with copper-related components seeing higher movement
What to Do:
If you have deals in the pipeline, close them before the next round hits
Lock equipment pricing with your distributor on any job you've already quoted
Use this data when customers push back on pricing — share the numbers, build trust
Quick Margin Check
With costs moving this fast, remember: markup is not margin.
A job with $10,000 in costs at a 30% markup = $13,000 sale price (23% margin).
A job with $10,000 in costs at a 30% margin = $14,286 sale price.
That's $1,286 difference on the same job. Multiply by your monthly job count.
The formula: Selling Price = Total Cost ÷ (1 - Desired Margin)
If you haven't repriced your flat-rate book since the PPI moved, this week is a good time.
Data Sources
Copper, PPI indices: FRED / St. Louis Federal Reserve
Fuel prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Manufacturer alerts: ACHR News
Refrigerant pricing: Industry wholesale tracking
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